Insecurity, debt burden, next president’s headache
5 min read
DANIEL AYANTOYE examines some of the challenges facing the country which the next President must begin to tackle after his inauguration in May 2023
The race for who becomes the next President of the Federal Republic of Nigeria has intensified with many of the 18 presidential candidates reaching out to the electorate to appeal for votes.
According to the Independent National Electoral Commission, those going for the plum job are Asiwaju Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress, Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party, Peter Obi of the Labour Party, Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party, Imumolen Christopher of Accord Party, Al-Mustapha Hamza, Action Alliance; Sowore Omoyele, African Action Congress; Kachikwu Dumebi, African Democratic Congress; and Yabagi Sani of the Action Democratic Party.
Others are Umeadi Nnanna of the All Progressives Grand Alliance; Ojei Chichi, Allied Peoples Movement; Nnamdi Osita, Action Peoples Party; Adenuga Oluwafemi, Boot Party; Osakwe Johnson of the National Rescue Movement; Abiola Kolawole, Peoples Redemption Party; Adewole Adebayo of the Social Democratic Party; Malik Ado-Ibrahim, Young Progressives Party; and Nwanyanwu Daberechukwu of the Zenith Labour Party.
The current situation in the country, however, has raised diverse concerns on the need for the next president to be versatile. Not a few have insisted that the successor of the President, Major General Muhammadu Buhari (retd.), must be a quick-witted maestro to be able to crack the nut. Even the incumbent President couldn’t hold back words on the enormous challenges in steering the ship of state when he expressed his mind that he couldn’t wait to hand over the baton of leadership to another without considering the state he would be leaving the nation, which has been describe as worse than where he took off.
The Senior Special Assistant on Media and Publicity, Garba Shehu, in a statement in July 2022, said Buhari described his seven years in office as “tough and eager to go.”
Buhari had specifically said, “I can tell you; it has been tough. I am grateful to God that people appreciate the personal sacrifices we have been making. I wish the person who is coming after me the very best.”
Unlike his predecessor, Goodluck Jonathan, who had contested the 2015 election, hoping to continue as President, Buhari was sure to be inundated with problems of governance.
Recently, the former Emir of Kano, Sanusi Lamido, while speaking on the state of the economy at a Kaduna investment programme, expressed pity for the president that would succeed Buhari. He said, “In 2023, if we have an election, we cannot continue to have the trend because any continuation will lead to insecurity and might get us to Mali, Burkina Faso’s situation. We can’t keep pushing towards the brink; we have to come back.”
With the performance of President Buhari, who appears overwhelmed with a series of crises, it is believed that the next president will surely inherit more failures than successes of the current regime.
The current poverty ratio in the country has never been recorded in the history of the nation. The rate of unemployment vis a vis underemployment has also added to the increasing poverty rate. As of January 2022, the Nigerian Economic Summit Group said 91 million Nigerians live below poverty. This complements the World Bank projection that the number of poor Nigerians will hit 95.1 million in 2022.
More challenges ahead
There is no doubt that one of the challenges before the next President is the poor exchange rate between the naira and dollar. The naira-to-dollar exchange rate rose from N197 to N430-N442 to a dollar in the official market over a period while a dollar currently sells for N735-N745 at the parallel market.
Also, there has been a huge debt burden which will automatically be inherited by the person that will be at the helm of the country’s affairs from May 29, 2023. According to the Debt Management Office, the administration met a debt of N12.12tn on June 30, 2015, but it increased it to N42.84tn by June 30, 2022.
It is believed in some quarters that one of the critical steps that the incoming president must take at the assumption of office is to stabilise the economy, provide adequate security and good governance as the current situation under the Muhammadu Buhari-led government has worsened than what it was in 2015.
Jonathan’s government faced widespread outrage when his administration attempted to remove fuel subsidy and increase fuel price in 2012. The price of petrol rose from N65 to N141 per litre and also pushed inflation upward. This was the period of #OccupyNigeria protest when hundreds of thousands of Nigerians, including Muhammadu Buhari, took to the streets to express their misgivings over the development. After days of protest, the administration reversed the price of petrol to N97. It was further reduced to N87 per litre just before the end of Jonathan’s administration in 2015.
But upon his emergence in 2015, Buhari scrapped the Petroleum Support Fund and declared an end to the era of subsidy, even as he assured Nigerians that with the removal, the price of petrol would remain at N87 per litre. However, in 2016, the Buhari-led government took Nigerians by surprise when he abruptly increased the price to N145 per litre, with a promise to channel saved revenue to pushing the nation’s refineries, which were in bad shape, back to life.
The government quietly continued the payment of subsidy despite the increase in fuel pump price and earmarked N305bn for petrol subsidy in the 2019 budget proposal, although the administration never admitted that it was paying subsidy.
The coming of COVID-19 in 2020, however, forced down the price of oil to as low as $21 a barrel. The nation later witnessed an increase in the pump price to N161. In November 2021, the government said it would remove fuel subsidy and replace it with a monthly N5,000 transport grant to poor Nigerian, a situation that may be described as postponing the evil days. The Buhari-led regime on January 24, 2022, postponed the removal of fuel subsidy to July 2023 when a new President would have assumed office.
According to the Minister of Finance, Zainab Ahmed, the government realised that the timing of its planned removal of petrol subsidy was problematic and will worsen the suffering of Nigerians. To avert the reactions and possible revolt this may attract from the Nigerian masses, experts say the suspension became a necessity for the government.
As the Group Managing Director, Nigerian National Petroleum Company, Malam Mele Kyari, said while speaking during the World Bank Development Update. In November 2021 update, subsidy removal will lead to increase in fuel pump price from the current N180 to N340 per litre. This may also increase further with the current economic realities.