IMF Trims Nigeria’s Growth Forecast Amid Global Uncertainty

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has warned that Nigeria’s inflation rate may surge to 37% next year if global uncertainties persist. In its latest World Economic Outlook report, the IMF revised downward Nigeria’s growth projections for 2025 and 2026, citing sustained weaknesses in oil prices and global economic uncertainties.

According to the report, Nigeria’s economic growth is expected to moderate to 3.0% in 2025 and 2.7% in 2026. The IMF attributed the downward revision to the country’s vulnerability to global supply chains and the impact of tariffs on investment and demand for products.

IMF Economic Counsellor Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas explained that emerging economies like Nigeria are being downgraded due to their integration into global supply chains, making them susceptible to declines in demand and investment amid trade uncertainties.

The IMF also forecast a slight decline in growth for sub-Saharan Africa, from 4% in 2024 to 3.8% in 2025, with a modest recovery expected in 2026. For Nigeria, the downward revision in growth forecast is attributed to lower oil prices, while South Africa’s forecast was revised downward due to slowing momentum and heightened uncertainty.

Global growth projections were also revised downward to 2.8% for this year and 3.0% for next year, reflecting major policy shifts and rising uncertainty in the global trade system.